LAA vs CHC prediction for March 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.9 - LAA 5.4. LAA is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
CHC
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
LAA
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCLAA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
CHC
357
Pick Results
Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
FC43%91 mph26% whiff
SI22%94 mph14% whiff
ST21%83 mph35% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH26%94 mph26% whiff
CU24%84 mph44% whiff
SI20%97 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
80°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.986
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.37ERA
4.52FIP
9.98K/9
5.67BB/9
1.67WHIP
CHC
3.65ERA
3.55FIP
9.29K/9
2.60BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.5% EV
+102
ML AWAY
+27.4% EV
+164
F5 UNDER 5.5
+26.8% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-24.5% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
+21.6% EV
+146
ML HOME
-20.3% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.2 runs
43.1% win
CHC F5
2.0 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Michael Busch CHC20.7%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC18.2%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jo Adell LAA15.4%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2B10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Rendon 3B60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Seiya Suzuki RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Austin 1B60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 51.7%
-29.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.5 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →