FINAL: CHC 0 — LAA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 5.8 - LAA 5.2 (CHC at 55.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
CHC
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
LAA
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCLAA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.8 — LAA 5.2
Actual
CHC 0 — LAA 2
Pick Results
F5 UNDER 4.5f5_totalWIN+0.91u
LAA @ CHC NRFInrfiWIN+0.91u
CHC MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI50%97 mph14% whiff
KC26%85 mph42% whiff
FS9%92 mph40% whiff
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF36%92 mph15% whiff
ST15%80 mph30% whiff
FC14%86 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
50°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
5.19ERA
5.11FIP
9.47K/9
4.94BB/9
1.68WHIP
CHC
3.74ERA
3.68FIP
8.90K/9
2.58BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-54.0% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+47.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-182
F5 OVER 3.5
+5.1% EV
-132
ML HOME
-4.5% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-4.3% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.3 runs
38.6% win
CHC F5
2.6 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Mike Trout LAA26.3%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x
Ian Happ CHC25.3%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Alex Bregman CHC24.4%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2B10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Rendon 3B60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CHC8 injured
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Seiya Suzuki RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Austin 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.3%
-2.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.0 pts
Total
7.0
+47.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →