LAA vs CLE prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.8 - LAA 3.4. CLE is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
CLE
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLELAA
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.8 — LAA 3.4
Actual
CLE 7 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brent Suter L
LAA
CH30%75 mph42% whiff
SI27%88 mph14% whiff
FF26%87 mph13% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF44%92 mph12% whiff
CH28%80 mph41% whiff
CU16%79 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
54°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.47ERA
4.58FIP
9.16K/9
4.54BB/9
1.39WHIP
CLE
3.99ERA
3.99FIP
10.07K/9
3.64BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.3% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.1% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.8% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-13.6% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.6% EV
+126
ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-175
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.8 runs
38.7% win
CLE F5
2.0 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
25%
Mike Trout LAA27.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jo Adell LAA23.3%
ISO: 0.391 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Oswald Peraza LAA22.0%
ISO: 0.325 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brent Suter
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=247)
Cold weather (54°F) + two mid-tier starters (Cantillo 3.7 ERA vs Suter 4.35 ERA) + Progressive Field neutral park + retractable roof open = structural under environment; market total of 7.5 is 0.26 runs too high.
Key Factors
- Temperature suppression: 54°F is COLD — suppresses approximately 0.5 runs from expected total
- Starter quality: Cantillo 3.7 ERA, 8.0 K/9 vs Suter 4.35 ERA, 8.0 K/9 — both B- grade, minimal differentiation
- Park factor: 1.011x (neutral); Progressive Field is not an outlier
- Model total 7.24 vs market 7.5 = 0.26 run undervalue for UNDER bettors
- Zone: YELLOW total zone (50.5% WR in sample of 247 bets) — modest but not GREEN
Risk Factors
- Cold weather effects are often overrated by models — market may correctly price conservatively
- Both teams capable of quick early runs despite cold conditions if lineup production aligns
- Edge of 9.3% is below market's calibration minimum (12%) — weak signal, could be noise
WEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCH MINIMALCOLD ENVIRONMENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 56.0%
-12.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.6 pts
Total
7.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →