LAA vs CLE prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.4 - LAA 4.5. CLE is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CLE
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLELAA
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
346
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.4 — LAA 4.5
Actual
CLE 3 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
SI31%98 mph14% whiff
CH30%91 mph29% whiff
FF24%98 mph23% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF35%93 mph18% whiff
FC25%88 mph17% whiff
CU16%74 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
69°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.64ERA
4.66FIP
8.93K/9
4.96BB/9
1.44WHIP
CLE
4.03ERA
3.96FIP
10.18K/9
3.69BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.5% EV
-182
F5_ML HOME
-10.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.5% EV
+150
ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-139
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-4.7% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-4.3% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.6 runs
44.0% win
CLE F5
2.5 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Zach Neto LAA28.4%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.5%
-9.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →