LAA vs CLE prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.9 - LAA 3.2. CLE is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
LAA
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLELAA
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.9 — LAA 3.2
Actual
CLE 4 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reid Detmers L
LAA
FF39%94 mph15% whiff
SL34%86 mph30% whiff
CH12%83 mph28% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF32%94 mph15% whiff
CH24%85 mph42% whiff
SI12%92 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
57°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.943 Total: 0.965
15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.55ERA
4.69FIP
8.74K/9
5.04BB/9
1.43WHIP
CLE
4.01ERA
4.01FIP
10.25K/9
3.77BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.1% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-18.5% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-7.4% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.8% EV
+138
ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.6 runs
32.3% win
CLE F5
2.1 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
64.1%
YRFI
35.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.4% WR (n=148)
Parker Messick (2.48 ERA, 28.4% K rate, B grade) dominates Reid Detmers (4.68 ERA, 24.8% K rate, B- grade), but cold weather (57°F, 15 mph in) and home field compress the edge; model-market gap on ML is only -3.5% despite the pitcher quality gap, signaling market respects home advantage appropriately.
Key Factors
- Messick (2.48 ERA, 28.4% K, B) vs Detmers (4.68 ERA, 24.8% K, B-): 2.20 ERA gap favors home
- Model 58.8% home vs market 61.0% = -3.5% edge (small, YELLOW zone, 54.4% WR)
- F5 UNDER 3.5: +2.4% edge (55.3% model prob) — only positive signal, but insufficient alone
- Weather: 57°F, 15 mph in, hr_mult 0.943 = significantly pitcher-friendly, reduces scoring
Risk Factors
- Cold weather (57°F): suppresses scoring, reduces home advantage
- Wind 15 mph in: pitcher-friendly, benefits both equally
- Detmers' 4.68 ERA not as bad as it looks if weather helps him stay efficient
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTNEUTRAL SPOT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 58.8%
-4.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.8 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →