LAA vs CWS prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.2 - LAA 4.1. LAA is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
CWS
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSLAA
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
CWS
135
Projected
CWS 3.2 — LAA 4.1
Actual
CWS 3 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
FF33%96 mph13% whiff
FS22%87 mph27% whiff
SL18%86 mph28% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST37%82 mph23% whiff
FC25%90 mph16% whiff
SI24%94 mph3% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
54°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.024
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
5.44ERA
5.14FIP
9.29K/9
5.45BB/9
1.50WHIP
CWS
5.41ERA
5.21FIP
8.52K/9
6.09BB/9
1.64WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.8% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-28.0% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+20.1% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.8% EV
-114
ML HOME
-11.4% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-8.7% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.1 runs
44.1% win
CWS F5
1.8 runs
36.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.375 | Barrel: 19.2% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 1.01x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.438 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 57.3%
-43.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.8 pts
Total
8.5
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →