LAA vs DET prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.2 - LAA 3.9. DET is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
DET
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.2 — LAA 3.9
Actual
DET 6 — LAA 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI39%96 mph15% whiff
CH22%90 mph34% whiff
FF20%96 mph18% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF34%94 mph9% whiff
SI19%94 mph10% whiff
SL17%85 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
82°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.57ERA
4.76FIP
8.80K/9
5.05BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.21ERA
4.17FIP
8.98K/9
4.43BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.5% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.7% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.4% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
+102
ML HOME
-4.2% EV
-133
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
DET F5
2.3 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA27.3%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe CDAY-TO-DAY
Nolan Schanuel 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects 8.05 total runs vs market 8.5, generating a UNDER edge of +10.4% (55.2% win prob for under). Both starters are mediocre (Montero N/A ERA, no track record; Kochanowicz 4.91 ERA) but the model's run projection is low relative to market. Key drivers: 1) Weather is COLD-ish (82.2F not extreme) with 7.9 mph wind tail-wind (+3.6), supporting runs NOT suppression; 2) DET park factor 1.0 (neutral); 3) Model mean 8.05 vs market 8.5 is 5.6% underestimation by market. However, UNDER market is disabled per calibration (Grade F total market). Reduced confidence to LEAN with unit_modifier 0.75 to hedge system risk.
Key Factors
- Model 8.05 vs market 8.5: 5.6% underestimation by market (favors UNDER)
- Montero (DET): TBD starter, no ERA history — unknown quality
- Kochanowicz (LAA): 4.91 ERA, mediocre but B- command grade
- Wind: 7.9 mph blowing roughly neutral (tail-wind +3.6 helps runs) — not suppressive
- Temperature 82.2F: Warm, slight run boost
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled per system learning — potential model overweighting this edge
- Both starters have limited track records; variance high
- Teams' recent form unknown
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDWEATHER NEUTRALLOW EDGE GAMETBD PITCHER CONCERN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.6%
-3.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.7 pts
Total
8.5
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.