LAA vs DET prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.2 - LAA 3.9. DET is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
DET
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.2 — LAA 3.9
Actual
DET 6 — LAA 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI39%96 mph15% whiff
CH22%90 mph34% whiff
FF20%96 mph18% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF34%94 mph9% whiff
SI19%94 mph10% whiff
SL17%85 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
82°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.57ERA
4.76FIP
8.80K/9
5.05BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.21ERA
4.17FIP
8.98K/9
4.43BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.5% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.7% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.4% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
+102
ML HOME
-4.2% EV
-133
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
DET F5
2.3 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA27.3%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe CDAY-TO-DAY
Nolan Schanuel 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=293)
Model projects 8.05 total runs vs market 8.5, generating a UNDER edge of +10.4% (55.2% win prob for under). Both starters are mediocre (Montero N/A ERA, no track record; Kochanowicz 4.91 ERA) but the model's run projection is low relative to market. Key drivers: 1) Weather is COLD-ish (82.2F not extreme) with 7.9 mph wind tail-wind (+3.6), supporting runs NOT suppression; 2) DET park factor 1.0 (neutral); 3) Model mean 8.05 vs market 8.5 is 5.6% underestimation by market. However, UNDER market is disabled per calibration (Grade F total market). Reduced confidence to LEAN with unit_modifier 0.75 to hedge system risk.
Key Factors
- Model 8.05 vs market 8.5: 5.6% underestimation by market (favors UNDER)
- Montero (DET): TBD starter, no ERA history — unknown quality
- Kochanowicz (LAA): 4.91 ERA, mediocre but B- command grade
- Wind: 7.9 mph blowing roughly neutral (tail-wind +3.6 helps runs) — not suppressive
- Temperature 82.2F: Warm, slight run boost
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled per system learning — potential model overweighting this edge
- Both starters have limited track records; variance high
- Teams' recent form unknown
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDWEATHER NEUTRALLOW EDGE GAMETBD PITCHER CONCERN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.6%
-3.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.7 pts
Total
8.5
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →