LAA vs DET prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - LAA 4.1. DET is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — LAA 4.1
Actual
DET 4 — LAA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI29%97 mph24% whiff
FF25%98 mph23% whiff
KC23%86 mph40% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
FS27%87 mph33% whiff
SL25%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.081 Total: 1.044
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.25FIP
9.02K/9
4.41BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.3% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.9% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-4.9% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-4.1% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-3.9% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Dillon Dingler DET21.8%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA15.4%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x
Spencer Torkelson DET13.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE55.9% WR (n=168)
LAA @ DET: Model shows 51.0% home win prob (essentially coin flip), with edges near zero across markets (-3.6 to -3.9%). This is a neutral game with no actionable edge. Market is efficiently priced. Both teams have similar quality starters (Mize B grade, Soriano B grade, both with unknown ERA data). Park factor 1.0 neutral. Weather 83.5°F hot (adds ~0.5 runs), 7.8 mph wind blowing out (hr_mult 1.081 = +8% HR boost). Essentially coin flip. SKIP — no edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Mize 24.3% K-rate vs Soriano 27.8% K-rate — Soriano slightly better K-rate but similar quality (both B grade).
- No edge: Model 51% vs market 52.9% = -1.9% edge for home. Coin flip territory.
- Weather effect: 83.5°F hot (+0.5 runs), wind blowing out (hr_mult 1.081 = +8% HR boost). Both factors favor offense, but equally for both teams.
- Park neutral: 1.0 park factor, no advantage.
- Injury balance: Both teams weakened equally. No swing.
Risk Factors
- No actionable edge: -3.6% to -3.9% ML edges mean market is better priced than model.
- Coin flip risk: Either team has equal 50/50 chance. Variance is highest.
NEUTRAL MATCHUPNO EDGECOIN FLIPSKIP APPROPRIATE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 51.0%
-37.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.3 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →