LAA vs DET prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - LAA 4.1. DET is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — LAA 4.1
Actual
DET 4 — LAA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI29%97 mph24% whiff
FF25%98 mph23% whiff
KC23%86 mph40% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
FS27%87 mph33% whiff
SL25%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.081 Total: 1.044
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.25FIP
9.02K/9
4.41BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.3% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.9% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-4.9% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-4.1% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-3.9% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Dillon Dingler DET21.8%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA15.4%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x
Spencer Torkelson DET13.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
LAA @ DET: Model shows 51.0% home win prob (essentially coin flip), with edges near zero across markets (-3.6 to -3.9%). This is a neutral game with no actionable edge. Market is efficiently priced. Both teams have similar quality starters (Mize B grade, Soriano B grade, both with unknown ERA data). Park factor 1.0 neutral. Weather 83.5°F hot (adds ~0.5 runs), 7.8 mph wind blowing out (hr_mult 1.081 = +8% HR boost). Essentially coin flip. SKIP — no edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Mize 24.3% K-rate vs Soriano 27.8% K-rate — Soriano slightly better K-rate but similar quality (both B grade).
- No edge: Model 51% vs market 52.9% = -1.9% edge for home. Coin flip territory.
- Weather effect: 83.5°F hot (+0.5 runs), wind blowing out (hr_mult 1.081 = +8% HR boost). Both factors favor offense, but equally for both teams.
- Park neutral: 1.0 park factor, no advantage.
- Injury balance: Both teams weakened equally. No swing.
Risk Factors
- No actionable edge: -3.6% to -3.9% ML edges mean market is better priced than model.
- Coin flip risk: Either team has equal 50/50 chance. Variance is highest.
NEUTRAL MATCHUPNO EDGECOIN FLIPSKIP APPROPRIATE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 51.0%
-37.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.3 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.