LAA vs DET prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.8 - LAA 4.5. LAA is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
DET
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
346
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.8 — LAA 4.5
Actual
DET 1 — LAA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
FF49%96 mph10% whiff
SL22%84 mph35% whiff
CH15%83 mph0% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%92 mph13% whiff
SL25%85 mph25% whiff
KC19%78 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
71°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.033
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.25FIP
9.02K/9
4.41BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.5% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.8% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-130
ML HOME
-16.8% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.1% EV
-112
ML AWAY
+11.8% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.6 runs
48.6% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
35.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Zach Neto LAA23.9%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET23.5%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA18.7%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Kenley Jansen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE43.4% WR (n=166)
Model favors LAA ML at 52.7% (11.8% edge) but away ML RED zone (43.4% WR, n=166) combined with LAA as underdog creates double-RED signal. Away dog with 11.8% edge falls into worst-performing profile. SKIP despite raw edge.
Key Factors
- Away ML in RED zone with 43.4% historical WR (z=-1.71) — this profile is fundamentally unprofitable
- LAA K9 8.9 vs DET K9 10.5 — Rodriguez slightly worse on strikeout generation
- Weather neutral (70.8F, 7mph out, Comerica 1.033x multiplier) — no tactical edge
- LHP availability: None detected in lineup cards that shifts platoon edge materially
- Recent 7d cycle shows ICE_COLD tier (22.2% WR, n=9) — system is in a slump, reduce conviction
Risk Factors
- Away underdog with 11.8% edge = 38.8% historical WR (far below breakeven)
- Rodriguez has only 8.9 K/9 despite good K-rate (19.6%)—fastball heavy (49%) vs contact-friendly C+ stuff grade
- Flaherty's ERA data N/A in profile—cannot verify pitcher quality beyond grade (B-). Adds uncertainty
RED ZONEAWAY ML DISCOUNTICE COLD TIEREDGE INVERSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 54.5%
-21.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.8 pts
Total
8.5
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →