LAA vs DET prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.8 - LAA 4.5. LAA is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
DET
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAA
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
346
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.8 — LAA 4.5
Actual
DET 1 — LAA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
FF49%96 mph10% whiff
SL22%84 mph35% whiff
CH15%83 mph0% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%92 mph13% whiff
SL25%85 mph25% whiff
KC19%78 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
71°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.033
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.25FIP
9.02K/9
4.41BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.5% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.8% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-130
ML HOME
-16.8% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.1% EV
-112
ML AWAY
+11.8% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.6 runs
48.6% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
35.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Zach Neto LAA23.9%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET23.5%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.97x
Jorge Soler LAA18.7%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Kenley Jansen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model favors LAA ML at 52.7% (11.8% edge) but away ML historically weak combined with LAA as underdog creates double-RED signal. Away dog with 11.8% edge falls into worst-performing profile. SKIP despite raw edge.
Key Factors
- Away ML historically weak with 43.4% historical WR (z=-1.71) — this profile is fundamentally unprofitable
- LAA K9 8.9 vs DET K9 10.5 — Rodriguez slightly worse on strikeout generation
- Weather neutral (70.8F, 7mph out, Comerica 1.033x multiplier) — no tactical edge
- LHP availability: None detected in lineup cards that shifts platoon edge materially
- Recent 7d cycle shows ICE_COLD tier (22.2% WR, n=9) — system is in a slump, reduce conviction
Risk Factors
- Away underdog with 11.8% edge = 38.8% historical WR (far below breakeven)
- Rodriguez has only 8.9 K/9 despite good K-rate (19.6%)—fastball heavy (49%) vs contact-friendly C+ stuff grade
- Flaherty's ERA data N/A in profile—cannot verify pitcher quality beyond grade (B-). Adds uncertainty
AWAY ML DISCOUNTICE COLD TIEREDGE INVERSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 54.5%
-21.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.8 pts
Total
8.5
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.