LAA vs LAD prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.2 - LAA 4.1. LAD is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADLAA
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.2 — LAA 4.1
Actual
LAD 5 — LAA 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI27%97 mph23% whiff
KC25%86 mph40% whiff
FF24%98 mph21% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF42%94 mph24% whiff
SL32%87 mph40% whiff
CH16%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
76°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.992
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.46ERA
4.82FIP
8.98K/9
5.27BB/9
1.44WHIP
LAD
3.03ERA
3.28FIP
9.68K/9
3.55BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.9% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-12.0% EV
-227
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.5% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-10.7% EV
-122
ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-244
ML AWAY
+9.3% EV
+200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.3 runs
34.9% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Wade Meckler LAA25.2%
ISO: 0.104 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Neto LAA25.2%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Jack Kochanowicz SP15-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Gustavo Campero C10-DAY-IL
Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Will Smith CDAY-TO-DAY
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Evan Phillips RP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE47.1% WR (n=201)
Model shows 9.3% away ML edge (LAA 36.4% vs market 33.3%) and 7.3% F5 edge. This is NOT aligned with starting pitcher quality: Emmet Sheehan (LAD home, 4.86 ERA, B stuff/command) vs José Soriano (LAA away, 2.94 ERA, B stuff 0.626, excellent stuff). Soriano is an ACE-tier starter (2.94 ERA, excellent command), while Sheehan is mediocre. The SP quality strongly FAVORS away by ~2.0 runs. Model's 9.3% away edge is moderate but contradicted by LAD home field advantage (1.1 park factor, though 8.8mph wind IN suppresses). The OVER edge is -10.7% (market has tight 8.5 total, model 9.21 only +1.9% edge). Recommendation: Avoid the contradictory edge. If Soriano is confirmed as elite recent form, LAA away is undervalued but market may have already priced in his excellence. Moderate confidence only, caution advised.
Key Factors
- SP dominance: Soriano 2.94 ERA (B stuff 0.626, excellent), 26.7% K rate vs Sheehan 4.86 ERA (B stuff), 26.0% K rate. Soriano is elite, 1.92 ERA gap large.
- Market heavily favoring home: -243 LAD (70.8% implied) suggests market consensus strong on Dodger home advantage
- Dodger Stadium 1.1 park factor (home HR advantage) offset by 8.8mph wind IN (suppresses fly balls). Net slight under-lean for totals.
- Model away edge 9.3% is moderate but contradicted by SP quality (should be 15%+ if model respected Soriano). Market may be correct.
- Recent performance of both teams unknown — Soriano form confirmation needed
Risk Factors
- Away underdog 9.3% edge in weak zone (away ML 47.1% WR historically). Market respected home field may be correct.
- LAD bullpen (3.03 ERA, 1.485 quality) is ELITE vs LAA (4.46 ERA, 1.009 quality). This late-game advantage favors home significantly.
- If Soriano recent starts have been poor (regression from 2.94 ERA), model overestimating value
SP QUALITY MISMATCHMARKET TIGHT PRICINGAWAY ML MODERATE EDGEPARK SUPPRESSION WINDCAUTION DATA DISAGREEMENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 62.0%
-11.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.5 pts
Total
8.5
+1.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →