LAA vs NYY prediction for April 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 3.9 - LAA 5.6. LAA is favored with a 64.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYLAA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
468
NYY
246
Pick Results
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.57u
Mike Trout OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.67u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
FF26%95 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph19% whiff
SL22%86 mph28% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
FF45%94 mph25% whiff
SI26%94 mph16% whiff
ST21%84 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
78°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.963 Total: 0.976
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.76ERA
4.36FIP
9.65K/9
6.23BB/9
1.44WHIP
NYY
2.99ERA
2.09FIP
10.02K/9
3.28BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+49.0% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
+41.8% EV
+142
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-40.9% EV
+104
ML HOME
-33.8% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-33.3% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-10.4% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
3.1 runs
55.1% win
NYY F5
2.0 runs
30.5% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.1%
YRFI
47.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
5%
Zach Neto LAA50.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x
Jorge Soler LAA50.0%
ISO: 0.298 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x
Aaron Judge NYY41.8%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
NYY6 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE45.2% WR (n=323)
DATA_INTEGRITY FAILURE: Model assigns 64.1% win prob to away team with WORSE STARTING PITCHER (Kikuchi 7.29 ERA) facing ELITE HOME STARTER (Warren 3.32 ERA); model has reversed pitcher quality assessment. +49.0% edge on away underdog is classic RED_ZONE trap (away underdogs 45.2% WR). BLOCK entirely.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors HOME: Warren 3.32 ERA, 25.3% K-rate (B-grade, elite control) vs Kikuchi 7.29 ERA, 22.9% K-rate (struggling badly)
- Model ERROR: Shows away 64.1% when home should be 65-70% by pitcher quality alone
- Home park advantage: Yankee Stadium +1.1 park factor (+10% runs) amplifies pitcher edge
- Market is correct: -188 NYY reflects true quality gap; market is not obviously wrong
Risk Factors
- CRITICAL: Model has backwards directional call; this is not a marginal misjudgment but a fundamental reversal
- EXTREME HIGH-EDGE trap: 49.0% edge on away underdog is RED_ZONE money pit (45.2% historical WR)
- Yankee Stadium has inflated run factor: Model projects 9.43 total (high), but this doesn't overcome pitcher quality advantage
DATA INTEGRITYHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 64.1%
-40.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-40.9 pts
Total
9.5
+3.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →