LAA vs NYY prediction for April 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.1 - LAA 4.3. NYY is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
NYY
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYLAA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
NYY
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brent Suter L
LAA
FF28%86 mph18% whiff
SI27%88 mph11% whiff
CH27%76 mph52% whiff
Max Fried L
NYY
SI23%93 mph8% whiff
FF21%94 mph26% whiff
FC19%92 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
89°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.001
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.51ERA
4.77FIP
9.42K/9
6.01BB/9
1.52WHIP
NYY
3.52ERA
3.12FIP
8.73K/9
3.46BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+54.0% EV
+245
F5_ML AWAY
+43.6% EV
+220
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-32.3% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-27.7% EV
-122
ML HOME
-25.0% EV
-303
F5_ML HOME
-24.2% EV
-294
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.2 runs
41.1% win
NYY F5
2.2 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
8%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Max Fried | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Max Fried | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.474 | Barrel: 19.5% | vs Brent Suter | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brent Suter
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Jorge Soler RFSUSPENSION
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Alek Manoah SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Johnson SP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE43.6% WR (n=346)
STRONG AVOID. Model shows 54% edge on away (LAA) as underdog, but away ML zone is RED (43.6% WR, n=346 large sample). Despite SP advantage (Suter 27.9% K-rate, B stuff >> Fried 19% K-rate, C stuff), market's -303 home pricing reflects Yankee Stadium park advantage (+1.1) and hot weather (89°F) that model underweights. This is a textbook away-underdog trap.
Key Factors
- Brent Suter (LAA away): 27.9% K-rate (elite), B stuff, 2.25 ERA >> Max Fried (NYY home): 19% K-rate, C stuff, 2.08 ERA
- Suter's 8.9% K-rate advantage is massive—should favor away significantly
- BUT: Yankee Stadium park factor +1.1 (boosts runs ~8%), hot weather (89°F) adds 0.5-1.0 runs
- Model total 8.4 vs market 9.5 = 1.1 run gap (model underestimates park/weather)
- Market -303 (75.2% home) reflects accurate park/weather pricing, not overconfidence
Risk Factors
- 54% away edge is EXTREME—historically worst outcomes (HIGH_EDGE_WARNING)
- Away ML RED zone: 43.6% WR n=346—away underdogs with high edges fail 56%+ of the time
- Market's 75.2% home is not irrational given park and weather factors model underweights
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACTDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.1%
-32.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-32.3 pts
Total
9.5
+23.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →