LAA vs OAK prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.1 - LAA 4.8. OAK is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
OAK
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
LAA
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKLAA
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,433 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 5.1 — LAA 4.8
Actual
OAK 5 — LAA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
LAA
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF50%97 mph19% whiff
SL25%88 mph23% whiff
CH10%88 mph46% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
65°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.967 Total: 0.979
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.6% EV
-154
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-17.3% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+11.4% EV
+140
ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.5% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.6 runs
39.9% win
OAK F5
2.9 runs
46.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Soriano SPDAY-TO-DAY
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE54.7% WR (n=6)
LAA starting pitcher TBD blocks main game analysis. NRFI +11.4% edge intriguing but market may not offer this prop. Away ML zone RED (45.3% WR). Hard pass due to missing pitcher info.
Key Factors
- LAA PITCHER TBD — blocks reliable analysis; simulation uses avg profile, not actual starter intel
- Gage Jump (B-, 7.4 K/9, 0.519 score) average for MLB starter
- NRFI edge +11.4% suggests both teams likely scoreless first inning due to Jump command (B+, 0.707) and cool weather (65.4F)
- Cool weather (65.4F) + strong headwind (11.1 mph in) suppresses early-inning runs
- Away ML +5.9% edge minor and away zone RED (45.3% WR) — inherent weakness
Risk Factors
- TBD LAA pitcher introduces max uncertainty; game should not be analyzed without starter confirmation
- NRFI prop may not be available in standard books; edge is academic without market odds
- Away zone RED; LAA away inherently unprofitable niche
TBD PITCHERRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.1%
-8.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.5 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →