Who is predicted to win LAA vs OAK on June 21, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, OAK is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is OAK 5.6 - LAA 4.3.

How did LAA vs OAK on June 21, 2026 end?

Final score: OAK 7 - LAA 9. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

LAA vs OAK Prediction & Picks — June 21, 2026

LAA vs OAK prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.6 - LAA 4.3. OAK is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.

OAK

5.6

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.0

LAA

4.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

59.1%

40.9%

OAKLAA

-1.5

Run Line (OAK)

9.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,497 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

LAA

246

OAK

468

Projected

OAK 5.6 — LAA 4.3

Actual

OAK 7 — LAA 9

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Reid Detmers L

LAA

FF44%94 mph17% whiff

SL32%86 mph31% whiff

CH11%84 mph28% whiff

Jack Perkins R

OAK

FF38%96 mph15% whiff

ST29%86 mph35% whiff

CH15%90 mph40% whiff

Weather Impact

Oakland Coliseum

72°F8 mph wind

HR: 0.986 Total: 0.990

7mph in

Bullpen Comparison

LAA

4.26ERA

4.74FIP

9.10K/9

5.18BB/9

1.42WHIP

OAK

4.87ERA

3.91FIP

9.81K/9

4.20BB/9

1.44WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-46.8% EV

-196

F5_ML AWAY

-21.9% EV

-110

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

+17.8% EV

+162

TOTAL UNDER 9.0

-14.7% EV

-104

ML AWAY

-12.2% EV

+110

F5_ML HOME

+11.1% EV

-114

First 5 Innings & NRFI

LAA F5

2.3 runs

33.0% win

OAK F5

3.3 runs

53.8% win

F5 Total

5.6

NRFI

52.2%

YRFI

47.8%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.01

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.8

Over 0.5 HR

93%

Over 1.5 HR

75%

No HR

Nick Kurtz OAK21.3%

ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 0.94x

Zack Gelof OAK20.9%

ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x

Zach Neto LAA20.7%

ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 0.94x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Reid Detmers

0.0 K projected

LAA | K/9: 0.0

Jack Perkins

0.0 K projected

OAK | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

LAA8 injured

Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL

Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL

Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL

Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL

Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL

Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL

+2 more

OAK7 injured

Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL

Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL

Wei-En Lin POUT

Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL

Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL

Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL

+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.6% WR (n=116)

Home favorite (OAK 59.1%) has +3.0% ML edge but sits in YELLOW zone (54.6% WR, n=116) without compelling pitcher differential or lineup advantage. Market -129 is fair; skip.

Key Factors

Both SPs quality (Perkins 10.8 K-rate, Detmers 10.8 K-rate) — symmetrical, no edge
Home team (OAK) has +3.0% edge despite LAA missing Trout (star CF) — market pricing correctly

Risk Factors

Small edge (1.7% ML) in YELLOW zone is not sufficient conviction

NEUTRAL ZONEHOME FAVORITEYELLOW

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

OAK 59.1%

+17.8 pts

Run Line