LAA vs SEA prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.4 - LAA 2.8. SEA is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEALAA
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.4 — LAA 2.8
Actual
SEA 6 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
FC31%90 mph29% whiff
SI28%92 mph4% whiff
FS25%84 mph40% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
FF30%97 mph19% whiff
ST29%87 mph26% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
68°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.978
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.0% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.0% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.7% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.6% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-13.4% EV
-222
ML HOME
-12.1% EV
-222
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.4 runs
34.0% win
SEA F5
1.8 runs
46.1% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
62.2%
YRFI
37.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Dominic Canzone DHDAY-TO-DAY
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 59.0%
-14.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.6 pts
Total
7.5
+14.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →