LAA vs SEA prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.3 - LAA 3.3. SEA is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEALAA
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.3 — LAA 3.3
Actual
SEA 8 — LAA 3
Pick Results
José Soriano OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.45u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI26%97 mph21% whiff
KC24%85 mph41% whiff
FF24%97 mph23% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph22% whiff
SI17%96 mph8% whiff
SL14%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
64°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.990
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.7% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-9.5% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-189
ML HOME
-4.1% EV
-189
ML AWAY
-3.7% EV
+158
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-3.5% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.7 runs
32.2% win
SEA F5
2.4 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE56.3% WR (n=145)
José Soriano (LAA away, 3.59 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 50.2%) vs Bryan Woo (SEA home, 8.7 K/9, 24.3% K rate, B 57.4%). This looks like SEA home edge (Woo 57.4% vs Soriano 50.2%), and model confirms: SEA 62.4% (market -188 prices SEA 65.3%). Model -4.1% edge on SEA means market is correctly pricing game. NRFI very strong: 61.1% model prob (2.6% edge) — market respects this (-188 SEA favors low-scoring game). T-Mobile Park Seattle cold (64.1°F, 6.9 mph wind neutral) = low run environment. Zone: Away ML -3.7% edge lands in RED zone (43.6% WR) — picking away ML is losing. Home ML at -4.1% edge isn't actionable either (YELLOW 56.3% WR on home but edge negative). NRFI edge +2.6% (61.1% model prob, market implying 58.5% under NRFI) is slight lean but under 3% edge is minimal. RECOMMENDATION: SKIP. Market has priced this efficiently. SEA -188 is correct. Avoid picking sides in efficient market.
Key Factors
- Soriano (LAA, 3.59 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 50.2%) vs Woo (SEA, 8.7 K/9, 24.3% K rate, B 57.4%) = Woo advantage
- T-Mobile Park cold (64.1°F) = run suppression (~0.5 run reduction)
- SEA bullpen elite (3.37 ERA, 1.335 quality) vs LAA bullpen adequate (4.26 ERA) = SEA relief edge
- Market -188 (65.3%) vs model 62.4% = only 2.9pp gap (efficient)
- NRFI edge +2.6% is only actionable edge but minimal
Risk Factors
- Home ML zone YELLOW (56.3% WR) not GREEN — no strong home bias
- Market -188 SEA is consensus, sharp-set — unlikely to beat
- Cold weather and run suppression limit totals upside
MARKET EFFICIENTZONE YELLOWNRFI WEAK EDGESKIP APPROPRIATECONSENSUS PRICED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 62.4%
-3.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.5 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →