LAA vs TB prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - LAA 4.1. TB is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
TB
346
Projected
TB 4.5 — LAA 4.1
Actual
TB 3 — LAA 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reid Detmers L
LAA
FF43%94 mph18% whiff
SL31%86 mph32% whiff
CH12%83 mph29% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC35%90 mph21% whiff
FF27%96 mph21% whiff
SI20%96 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F11 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
TB
4.13ERA
3.82FIP
8.29K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.9% EV
-169
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-26.6% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-156
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-161
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.8% EV
+140
F5 OVER 3.5
+5.3% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.1 runs
38.6% win
TB F5
2.4 runs
45.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Zach Neto LAA28.6%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x
Mike Trout LAA27.6%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x
Wade Meckler LAA22.1%
ISO: 0.157 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Detmers (B grade, 10.7 K/9) significantly outpitches Rasmussen (B-, 8.3 K/9), creating pitcher mismatch to LAA. Market overprices TB at -161 (61.7% vs 56.5% true). However, LAA as away dog is historically weak. Model edge (~3.5%) is insufficient to overcome away historically weak bias.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Drew Rasmussen (TB, B-, 8.3 K/9, excellent command 0.678 grade) vs Reid Detmers (LAA, B, 10.7 K/9, 0.586 command). DETMERS HAS SUPERIOR K RATE (+2.4 K/9) and B grade overall. This is MISMATCH TO LAA (away). Detmers is elite K pitcher.
- Market has TB at -161 (61.7%) vs model 56.5%. Model shows LAA away underdog at 43.5% but edge actually favors LAA by 3.5pp on model (56.5 vs 61.7). Sharp money against TB.
- Tropicana Field is DOMED (neutral climate), park factor 1.0. No weather advantage. Temperature irrelevant (indoor 72°F controlled).
- LAA is strong team (33-27, 3rd AL West), TB is solid (32-28, 1st AL East). LAA lineup: Trout, Neto, Rendon (out on IL). TB lineup: Strong defensively.
- Over edge only 1.1% — minimal totals value.
Risk Factors
- LAA as away dog at -151 (market) is historically weak historically (a supportive track record). Even with pitcher advantage (Detmers 10.7 K/9), away historically weak blocks edge.
- Market is overpricing TB (-161) vs model (56.5%). If sharp money is right, TB may be legitimate favorite despite pitching disadvantage.
- Model shows LAA edge but not enough to overcome away historically weak bias historically (would need >10% true edge to justify away dog).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 55.8%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
7.0
+1.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.