LAA vs TB prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.9 - LAA 4.5. TB is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
TB
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
346
TB
357
Projected
TB 4.9 — LAA 4.5
Actual
TB 5 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI39%96 mph15% whiff
CH23%90 mph35% whiff
FF20%96 mph18% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF37%95 mph17% whiff
CH29%87 mph35% whiff
SL21%88 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F7 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
TB
4.13ERA
3.82FIP
8.29K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.6% EV
-125
F5_ML AWAY
+24.3% EV
+176
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-21.4% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-227
ML AWAY
+17.8% EV
+176
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-15.7% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.5 runs
42.0% win
TB F5
2.7 runs
43.9% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
53.6%
YRFI
46.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Oswald Peraza LAA28.1%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA24.1%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB22.3%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Zach Neto SSDAY-TO-DAY
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
LAA away RED zone (43.6% WR) with 17.8% edge — classic trap. McClanahan 2.72 ERA >> Kochanowicz. Market respecting pitcher gap at -208. Skip RED zone away.
Key Factors
- McClanahan elite pitcher
- Market correct -208
Risk Factors
- RED zone away
RED ZONE AWAYHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 55.4%
-15.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-15.7 pts
Total
8.0
+2.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →