LAA vs TOR prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.2 - LAA 3.9. TOR is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TOR
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.2 — LAA 3.9
Actual
TOR 14 — LAA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI38%96 mph14% whiff
CH24%90 mph37% whiff
SL19%86 mph40% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF43%94 mph17% whiff
FS29%83 mph53% whiff
SL27%88 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
57°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.024
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.42ERA
4.49FIP
9.22K/9
4.72BB/9
1.39WHIP
TOR
3.83ERA
3.16FIP
10.64K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.0% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-14.6% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.1% EV
+118
ML HOME
-11.2% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-11.2% EV
-175
ML AWAY
+8.5% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.1 runs
37.1% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
45.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 1.01x
Mike Trout LAA26.8%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x
Jorge Soler LAA23.2%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Logan O'Hoppe C10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Geovanny Jesus Planchart CDAY-TO-DAY
Chay Yeager RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 55.2%
-14.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.1 pts
Total
8.5
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →