LAD vs CWS prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.8 - LAD 5.7. CWS is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.5 total runs.
CWS
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSLAD
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
468
CWS
468
Projected
CWS 5.8 — LAD 5.7
Actual
CWS 8 — LAD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF44%97 mph15% whiff
SL21%86 mph41% whiff
FS20%90 mph33% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF27%96 mph16% whiff
ST19%82 mph28% whiff
SI19%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
76°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.983 Total: 0.988
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.37FIP
10.14K/9
3.65BB/9
1.19WHIP
CWS
4.42ERA
4.70FIP
8.52K/9
4.81BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-24.4% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.1% EV
-127
F5 OVER 4.5
+20.6% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.3% EV
+105
ML AWAY
-18.5% EV
-161
ML HOME
+17.3% EV
+136
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.3 runs
43.0% win
CWS F5
3.5 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
46.1%
YRFI
53.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Andy Pages LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x
Mookie Betts LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Shohei Ohtani DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Wrobleski SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
Chris Campos SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=188)
Underdog home CWS shows wild value: +17.3% ML edge (49.7% model vs 42.4% market), but away ML in RED zone (-18.5% edge LAD). Focus on TOTAL OVER 8.5 (+13.7% edge, 61.4% model) — both arms weak (Kay 4.75 ERA vs Sasaki 4.35 ERA), high-variance park environment (75.8F, 10.6mph wind in), and both lineups mid-tier create elevated run potential. Ohtani (LAD) day-to-day (knee inflammation) adds uncertainty.
Key Factors
- TOTAL edge extreme: +13.7% (61.4% model vs ~48% market), model projects 11.47 runs vs market 8.5 (2.97-run gap)
- Both pitchers weak: Kay 4.75 ERA (C- 0.301 low-grade), Sasaki 4.35 ERA (B- but still mediocre). Expect elevated run environment.
- F5 OVER edge exceptional: +20.6% (66.3% model) — early-inning scoring concentrated, weak pitching command suggests quick runs
Risk Factors
- CWS home ML edge (+17.3%) in RED zone underdog territory — market likely correct undervaluing CWS despite value perception
- Ohtani absence (-1.5 to -2pt swing) reduces LAD scoring, but model may already factor or overcompensate. Total still strong play.
HOME UNDERDOG VALUETOTAL MASSIVE EDGEWEAK PITCHINGF5 OVER EXCEPTIONALOHTANI ABSENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 51.9%
-24.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.1 pts
Total
8.5
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →