LAD vs HOU prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.1 - LAD 3.8. HOU is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
LAD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOULAD
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LADHOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.1 — LAD 3.8
Actual
HOU 3 — LAD 8
Pick Results
Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS30%91 mph37% whiff
FF24%96 mph16% whiff
FC17%91 mph27% whiff
Steven Okert L
HOU
SL67%80 mph28% whiff
FF33%91 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
74°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.64ERA
3.31FIP
10.06K/9
3.55BB/9
1.20WHIP
HOU
5.85ERA
5.38FIP
8.64K/9
5.79BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
+35.7% EV
+168
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-32.7% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-32.5% EV
-125
ML HOME
+30.8% EV
+166
F5_ML AWAY
-27.4% EV
-213
ML AWAY
-23.3% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.8 runs
35.8% win
HOU F5
2.2 runs
45.5% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
62.1%
YRFI
37.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.385 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Steven Okert | Park: 0.99x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.298 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Steven Okert | Park: 0.99x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 19.6% | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Steven Okert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 53.7%
-19.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.6 pts
Total
9.0
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →