LAD vs LAA prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.1 - LAD 3.7. LAD is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
LAA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
LAD
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAALAD
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (2,085 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.1 — LAD 3.7
Actual
LAA 0 — LAD 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Klein R
LAD
FF48%98 mph20% whiff
ST22%89 mph24% whiff
CU21%85 mph15% whiff
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI39%96 mph13% whiff
CH23%90 mph36% whiff
SL19%86 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
67°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.979 Total: 0.986
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.47ERA
3.12FIP
9.69K/9
3.57BB/9
1.21WHIP
LAA
4.48ERA
4.62FIP
8.80K/9
4.97BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-46.6% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.2% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+26.6% EV
-104
NRFI NRFI
+26.3% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.8% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 5.5
+23.1% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.0 runs
44.7% win
LAA F5
1.6 runs
34.3% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
67.2%
YRFI
32.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.380 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Andy Pages LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Jack Kochanowicz | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Klein
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA7 injured
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE43.4% WR (n=34)
UNDER 9.0 has massive 26.6% edge (64.6% model prob) but FALLS IN RED ZONE for under totals (46% WR historically). This is textbook high-edge trap: bigger model-market disagreement = worse historical outcomes. Both SPs are quality (Kochanowicz 4.29 ERA home, Will Klein 2.98 ERA away) supporting low runs, but market at 9.0 appears reasonable given ballpark and weather. LAD bullpen (3.47 ERA) is elite. LAA bullpen (4.48 ERA) is decent. Weather cold (67°F, 7.5mph in) supports under. BUT: RED ZONE warning + 26.6% edge = model likely overconfident. Lean only with extreme caution.
Key Factors
- RED ZONE UNDER: 43.4% WR on under totals (n=34) is WORST bucket. Game falls directly in this trap.
- EXTREME EDGE (26.6%): Exceeds calibration cap of 20%. Model is overconfident.
- Game logic supports under: Kochanowicz (4.29 ERA, C+ stuff), Klein (2.98 ERA, B-grade, good command), LAD bullpen (3.47 ERA, 1.297 quality), weather cold (67°F, 7.5mph in = ~0.8 run suppression).
- But market is not wrong: 9.0 total for LAD-LAA game is reasonable. Elite LAD bullpen (2.57 setup, 1.97 closer) doesn't give up free runs.
- Historical pattern: We've lost money on under totals all season (46% WR on disabled market). Adding another high-edge under is recipe for losses.
Risk Factors
- RED ZONE UNDER TRAP: 43.4% WR. Historical evidence says we LOSE money on this type of bet.
- EXTREME OVERCONFIDENCE: 26.6% edge exceeds calibration cap. Model is screaming uncertainty but edge is extreme. This is a classic mismatch.
- Market is correct: 9.0 total for LAD-LAA matchup with elite bullpens is fair pricing. Not overpriced.
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGEXTREME OVERCONFIDENCECALIBRATION DISABLEDCAUTION ONLY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 55.2%
-36.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.2 pts
Total
9.0
+26.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →