LAD vs LAA prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.1 - LAD 3.4. LAD is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
LAA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAALAD
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.1 — LAD 3.4
Actual
LAA 2 — LAD 15
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph15% whiff
SL34%86 mph21% whiff
CU6%75 mph10% whiff
José Soriano R
LAA
SI28%97 mph25% whiff
FF26%98 mph22% whiff
KC24%86 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
68°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.994
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.26ERA
3.06FIP
9.77K/9
3.60BB/9
1.17WHIP
LAA
4.43ERA
4.58FIP
8.81K/9
4.90BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.9% EV
-145
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-37.6% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+29.2% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+28.8% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.3% EV
+118
NRFI NRFI
+17.9% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.7 runs
41.7% win
LAA F5
1.5 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
66.9%
YRFI
33.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
41%
No HR
24%
Max Muncy LAD25.1%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jo Adell LAA23.9%
ISO: 0.345 | Barrel: 6.6% | vs Justin Wrobleski | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Andy Pages LAD20.4%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Logan O'Hoppe CDAY-TO-DAY
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=263)
Home underdog LAA projects strong TOTAL UNDER edge at 29.2% (model 67.0% vs market 33% implied under) — second-most-powerful total edge of day. José Soriano (home, 1.79 ERA, elite 28.2% K-rate, B-grade) vs Justin Wrobleski (away, 2.61 ERA, poor D-grade stuff, excellent command). Pitcher duel setup with elite home starter dominates. F5 UNDER edge 28.8% (model 66.8%) exceptional. Home underdog profile + elite pitcher + weather cool (68F) = low-scoring game. Market pricing at 8.5 reflects league average, not elite pitching.
Key Factors
- TOTAL UNDER edge 29.2% (model 67% vs market 33% implied) — second-strongest edge of day
- Home pitcher elite: Soriano (1.79 ERA, 28.2% K-rate, B-grade) vs Wrobleski (2.61 ERA, D-grade stuff)
- F5 UNDER edge 28.8% (model 66.8%) — exceptional early-game value
- Home underdog +116 ML (47.6% implied) — market pricing home team fair on direction, UNDER is mismatch
- Weather cool (68F, light wind in) — suppresses scoring vs baseline
Risk Factors
- Total market D grade (51.1% WR, -13.6 units) despite high calibration
- 29.2% edge in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR) creates conflict; possible overconfidence
- Wrobleski elite command (80.3%) could allow base running if LA doesn't strike out — contact scoring possible
PITCHER DUEL HOME ELITETOTAL UNDER EDGE STRONGF5 UNDER EXCEPTIONALHOME UNDERDOGNRFI EDGEYELLOW ZONE CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 52.7%
-39.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.9 pts
Total
8.5
+29.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →