LAD vs LAA prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.1 - LAD 3.5. LAA is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAD
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAALAD
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
245
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.1 — LAD 3.5
Actual
LAA 1 — LAD 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF44%97 mph11% whiff
FO22%85 mph38% whiff
SL18%86 mph36% whiff
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
FF47%96 mph22% whiff
CH21%83 mph35% whiff
SL16%86 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
69°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.993
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.20ERA
3.10FIP
9.69K/9
3.71BB/9
1.18WHIP
LAA
4.81ERA
4.67FIP
8.81K/9
4.98BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-35.1% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-32.7% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
-26.6% EV
-130
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-23.9% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-23.7% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+23.1% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.7 runs
30.9% win
LAA F5
2.5 runs
51.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.345 | Barrel: 18.6% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.98x
Jorge Soler LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA7 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 59.0%
-23.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-23.9 pts
Total
9.5
+23.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →