LAD vs MIL prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.0 - LAD 5.3. LAD is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILLAD
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.0 — LAD 5.3
Actual
MIL 5 — LAD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph15% whiff
SL34%86 mph20% whiff
CU6%74 mph10% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
FF44%93 mph24% whiff
CH32%83 mph26% whiff
FC18%87 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
64°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.041
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
2.95ERA
3.02FIP
9.58K/9
3.60BB/9
1.14WHIP
MIL
3.41ERA
3.06FIP
9.86K/9
4.01BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.3% EV
-192
F5_ML HOME
-22.1% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+13.3% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
+12.3% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-9.9% EV
-112
ML HOME
-9.1% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.8 runs
51.9% win
MIL F5
2.1 runs
33.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Logan Henderson | Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD29.2%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Logan Henderson | Platoon: 1.12x
Mookie Betts LAD28.6%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Logan Henderson
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Logan Henderson
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Garrett Mitchell CFDAY-TO-DAY
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE45.1% WR (n=164)
MIL home team at -107 shows modest model undervaluation (47.1% home prob vs 51.8% market implied). LAD away favorite at -107 shows 2.1% edge (52.9% prob) but sits in RED zone for away favorites (40.9% WR). Pitcher matchup slightly favors home (Henderson 3.78 ERA vs Wrobleski weak D-grade stuff), but model-market divergence suggests uncertainty.
Key Factors
- Pitcher SP quality: Logan Henderson (B+ grade, 0.713 score, 33.3% K-rate, 3.8% BB-rate, 3.78 ERA) vs Justin Wrobleski (B- grade, 0.423 score, 14.8% K-rate, 5.6% BB-rate, D-grade stuff) — Henderson elite command/K, Wrobleski weak arm; significant gap
- LAD away at -107 (favorite) shows 2.1% edge but sits in RED zone for away favorites (40.9% WR) — away moneyline structurally weak
- F5_ML LAD away edge 12.3% (57.9% prob) is attractive but F5_ML disabled — cannot pursue
- American Family Field park factor 1.0 (neutral) + cool weather (64.2F, 10.3mph out) = pitcher-friendly with HR boost from wind
- Model home prob 46.4% vs market 51.8% — market significantly favors home despite weak pitcher (Wrobleski)
Risk Factors
- LAD away favorite paradox: 2.1% edge on away side is in worst historical bucket (away favorites 40.9% WR). Market likely correct.
- F5_ML edge 12.3% is tempting but F5_ML disabled due to poor historical performance
- Wrobleski D-grade stuff should be punished, but road teams historically underperform vs home
RED ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 53.6%
-46.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.3 pts
Total
8.5
+1.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →