LAD vs MIL prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.8 - LAD 4.6. MIL is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
MIL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILLAD
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LADMIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (2,258 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 4.8 — LAD 4.6
Actual
MIL 3 — LAD 11
Pick Results
Brice Turang OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsWIN+1.72u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF44%97 mph12% whiff
FO21%85 mph36% whiff
SL19%86 mph40% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
ST32%82 mph35% whiff
SI25%92 mph7% whiff
FF20%93 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
59°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.031
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
2.90ERA
3.04FIP
9.40K/9
3.59BB/9
1.13WHIP
MIL
3.36ERA
3.11FIP
9.79K/9
4.10BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.8% EV
-172
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-15.9% EV
+142
F5_ML AWAY
-14.2% EV
-123
ML AWAY
-12.6% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-9.4% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
+5.2% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.6 runs
39.4% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Robert Gasser
Mookie Betts LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.124 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Roki Sasaki | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Max Muncy 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Garrett Mitchell CFDAY-TO-DAY
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.8% WR (n=165)
Home favorite MIL shows 4.9% ML edge (53.0% win prob) with model slight advantage. Pitcher matchup: Robert Gasser (B-, 4.86 ERA, 8.0 K/9) home vs Roki Sasaki (B-, 5.5 ERA, 8.0 K/9) away. Home pitcher is BETTER (4.86 vs 5.5 ERA, 0.64 run gap). Park factor 1.0x neutral. Cool weather (59.4F) suppresses runs but balanced. Edge is modest; recommend LEAN 0.75 units.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR home: Gasser (4.86 ERA) vs Sasaki (5.5 ERA), 0.64-run advantage home
- Lineup quality favors away LAD (Ohtani, Mookie) but offset by home pitcher advantage
- Park factor 1.0x neutral (American Family Field) — no ballpark tilt
- Cool weather (59.4F) + 7.2 mph wind out slightly favor fly balls but overall neutral
Risk Factors
- Modest 4.9% edge suggests model not highly confident
- LAD lineup strength (Ohtani, Mookie elite) could overcome home pitcher edge
- Home favorite in YELLOW zone (54.8% WR) — moderate confidence only
PITCHER MISMATCH HOMEMODERATE EDGEHOME FAVORITE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 54.1%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
8.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →