LAD vs OAK prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.6 - LAD 6.2. LAD is favored with a 61.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
LAD
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKLAD
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
468
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.6 — LAD 6.2
Actual
OAK 3 — LAD 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph20% whiff
SL32%86 mph17% whiff
SI7%93 mph4% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF43%91 mph12% whiff
SL26%84 mph21% whiff
CH23%80 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
65°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.984
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.7% EV
-105
TOTAL OVER 11.0
-21.3% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.7% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
-5.8% EV
+124
ML HOME
-4.3% EV
+148
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.3 runs
50.5% win
OAK F5
2.7 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
47.7%
YRFI
52.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jose Suarez RPPATERNITY
Tyler Soderstrom LF10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin POUT
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE43.6% WR (n=145)
LAD away (-178, 64.0% implied) vs OAK home (+148, 40.3% implied). Model favors LAD 61.4% (modest -4.2% edge, essentially a wash). Both starters adequate (Wrobliski 2.93 Bayesian ERA B-, 16.2% K rate; Springs 0 K/9 data error, need to check). Oakland Coliseum cold (65°F, 10.8 mph wind IN, -7.6 tail wind = significant run suppression, -0.25 run impact). Market pricing OAK +148 implies 40.3% win prob vs model 38.6% LAD road away. Zone: Away ML is RED (43.6% WR, n=145) — picking dogs is historically losing. This is a TRAP GAME: LAD is Dodgers (strong org, record matters) but away ML is RED zone. NRFI edge +3.7% (45.1% model prob vs 47.6% market) — slight lean but not actionable. RECOMMENDATION: SKIP. Market is correctly pricing LAD road dog. Avoid RED zone away ML.
Key Factors
- Wrobleski (LAD? OAK?, 2.93 ERA, 16.2% K rate, B-) — unclear team assignment in data
- Springs (OAK?, K/9 DATA ERROR showing 0) — data integrity issue
- Oakland Coliseum cold (65°F, 10.8 mph wind IN) = -0.25 run suppression
- Market -178 LAD vs model 61.4% LAD = only 2.6pp gap (efficient)
- RED zone away ML (43.6% WR, n=145) is historically losing bet
Risk Factors
- RED zone away ML = money pit historically
- Data error on at least one starter (Springs K/9 = 0)
- LAD strong org but road ML is notoriously unprofitable
RED ZONE AWAY MLDATA INTEGRITY SPRINGS K9MARKET EFFICIENTSKIP APPROPRIATEAVOID AWAY ML
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 61.2%
-37.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.7 pts
Total
11.0
+0.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →