LAD vs PIT prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.5 - LAD 6.0. LAD is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
PIT
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAD
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITLAD
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (2,284 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
468
PIT
346
Projected
PIT 4.5 — LAD 6.0
Actual
PIT 6 — LAD 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph20% whiff
SL34%86 mph17% whiff
CU6%74 mph8% whiff
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF33%94 mph14% whiff
SI17%92 mph12% whiff
ST17%82 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
77°F21 mph wind
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.977
thin air, 15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.57ERA
3.45FIP
9.99K/9
3.69BB/9
1.18WHIP
PIT
4.40ERA
4.21FIP
9.46K/9
4.56BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.4% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-16.4% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+7.8% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-7.3% EV
+134
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.7% EV
-110
ML HOME
-5.1% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.2 runs
52.3% win
PIT F5
2.3 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD26.7%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Shohei Ohtani LAD26.6%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 23.4% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
Chris Campos SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Henry Davis CPATERNITY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=193)
Model-market conflict on totals: Model projects 10.48 total runs and leans OVER 9.5 (+7.8% edge), but weather data (20.7 mph wind blowing IN at -14.9 mph tail wind, 77F) suggests suppression of 1.0-1.5 runs. The market total of 9.5 appears correct given weather; model's 10.48 projection contradicts the wind data. LAD ML is fairly priced (-175 vs model 61.4%, market slightly ahead). No actionable edge exists.
Key Factors
- Massive pitcher mismatch favors LAD: Wrobleski 2.83 ERA (B-/C-, 17.1% K rate, 4.9% BB rate) vs Keller 5.19 ERA (C+/C, 18.4% K rate, 7.5% BB rate) = 2.36-run gap in LAD's favor
- LAD ML is correctly priced: Market -175 (63.6% implied) vs model 61.4% suggests market is ahead, pricing the pitcher mismatch efficiently
Risk Factors
- Model-weather conflict on totals: Model 10.48 total vs market 9.5 with 15 mph wind IN is contradictory; market's lower total is more defensible given environmental suppression
- PNC Park suppression: -1.0% typical factor plus 15 mph wind IN should reduce runs by 1.5-2.0; model's 10.48 seems too high relative to conditions
- Red flag for model integrity: When model projects significantly higher totals than market with objectively adverse weather, model may be incorporating outdated or incorrect weather data
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 61.4%
-39.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.4 pts
Total
9.5
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →