LAD vs SD prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.6 - LAD 3.9. LAD is favored with a 63.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
SD
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.8% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.6 — LAD 3.9
Actual
SD 1 — LAD 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS29%91 mph37% whiff
FF25%96 mph21% whiff
FC16%91 mph25% whiff
Michael King R
SD
CH27%86 mph29% whiff
SI27%93 mph14% whiff
ST21%82 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.990
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.15ERA
3.06FIP
9.75K/9
3.66BB/9
1.17WHIP
SD
3.54ERA
3.48FIP
8.25K/9
3.47BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.0% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-25.5% EV
-102
ML HOME
-15.4% EV
+122
F5_ML HOME
-15.3% EV
+126
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.2% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+11.8% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.1 runs
50.1% win
SD F5
1.3 runs
28.3% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
17%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.267 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Mookie Betts LAD21.6%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brusdar Graterol RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Dreyer RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.8% WR (n=270)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.89 ERA, B grade, 25.9 K%) significantly outclasses Michael King (2.84 ERA, B- grade, but position-player-only team means less impact than typical starter). LAD is 63% win prob away model vs 59.2% market — 4.6% edge. But the real value is UNDER 7.5: Model 6.51 total vs 7.5 market = 14.2% edge at 62.4% prob. NRFI also 10.4% edge at 61.3% prob. F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 11.8% edge (67.3% prob). This is a run-suppression game: Yamamoto is solid, King is elite (2.84 ERA), Petco Park is -12% runs (0.99 factor), wind 8 mph in (-5.6), cold weather (64.3F). The UNDER is better edge than ML. F5 UNDER is cleanest play.
Key Factors
- Yamamoto (3.89 ERA, B grade) vs King (2.84 ERA, B-, though context matters)
- Model 6.51 total vs market 7.5 = 14.2% UNDER edge (62.4% prob)
- Petco Park -12% runs (0.99 park factor). Wind 8 mph in. Cold weather (64.3F). All suppressive.
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 11.8% edge (67.3% prob) and F5 totals zone is strong (57.1% WR, B+)
- LAD AWAY ML edge 4.6% is decent, but UNDER is cleaner play
Risk Factors
- Totals zone YELLOW (49.8% WR) — market may be correct on 7.5 baseline
- 14.2% edge is moderately high; high edges historically underperform
- F5 UNDER cleaner than full-game UNDER if unders are market trap
PITCHER QUALITYPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEF5 TOTALS EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 63.0%
-50.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.0 pts
Total
7.5
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →