LAD vs SD prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.2 - LAD 3.8. LAD is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SD
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LADSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.2 — LAD 3.8
Actual
SD 4 — LAD 5
Pick Results
Griffin Canning OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+2.34u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF42%94 mph27% whiff
SL32%87 mph41% whiff
CH17%85 mph23% whiff
Griffin Canning R
SD
CH35%90 mph31% whiff
FF27%95 mph29% whiff
SL21%88 mph46% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
70°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.13ERA
3.06FIP
9.68K/9
3.64BB/9
1.17WHIP
SD
3.52ERA
3.50FIP
8.20K/9
3.51BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.7% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-31.2% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.1% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+12.4% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+11.6% EV
-111
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.8% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.3 runs
46.9% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
17%
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD17.2%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.90x
Max Muncy LAD13.9%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Canning
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Dreyer RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 55.4%
-37.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.7 pts
Total
8.0
+12.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →