LAD vs SD prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.8 - LAD 5.0. LAD is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SD
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.0% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.8 — LAD 5.0
Actual
SD 0 — LAD 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shohei Ohtani R
LAD
FF44%98 mph27% whiff
ST26%84 mph40% whiff
CU12%75 mph50% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF30%95 mph20% whiff
FC25%90 mph23% whiff
SI14%95 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
73°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.994
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.03ERA
3.07FIP
9.60K/9
3.70BB/9
1.16WHIP
SD
3.50ERA
3.51FIP
8.32K/9
3.44BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-51.9% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-15.9% EV
+168
ML AWAY
-9.4% EV
-196
ML HOME
+5.6% EV
+164
NRFI NRFI
+5.4% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.1% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.7 runs
57.6% win
SD F5
1.4 runs
25.0% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Andy Pages LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x
Max Muncy LAD29.5%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Mookie Betts LAD23.9%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shohei Ohtani
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Dreyer RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 59.0%
-51.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-51.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →