LAD vs SD prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.4 - LAD 4.4. SD is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
SD
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.4 — LAD 4.4
Actual
SD 7 — LAD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF44%98 mph16% whiff
FS22%90 mph34% whiff
SL21%87 mph40% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph17% whiff
FF20%94 mph9% whiff
SI17%94 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
67°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.990
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.2% EV
-143
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.6% EV
+118
F5_ML AWAY
-17.8% EV
-147
ML AWAY
-15.4% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-12.5% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+11.3% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.4 runs
39.2% win
SD F5
2.6 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.90x
Rodolfo Durán SD28.7%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE64.0% WR (n=5)
Even SP quality (both B-, 8.0 K/9, Buehler slight ERA edge 4.28 vs 5.14). But model favors HOME underdog (51.7% vs market 45% implied on +122 odds). Rare dog value: 10.9% edge at 49.9% model prob. Petco park (-0.9) and wind 6mph IN favor low-scoring game. LAD road favorite historically underperform. Clean dog angle.
Key Factors
- SP MATCHED: Buehler (4.28 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B-) vs Sasaki (5.14 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B-) — nearly identical. Buehler slight edge.
- UNDERDOG VALUE: HOME SD +122 (45% implied) vs model 51.7% = 6.7pt gap favoring home. Rare dog value.
- HOME ML edge 10.9% at 49.9% model prob — optimal underdog angle
- PARK/WEATHER FAVOR HOME: Petco 0.9 (suppresses), wind 6mph IN, weather 67.4°F — all suppress runs, helping home underdog in low-scoring matchup
- ROAD FAVORITE CURSE: LAD -144 on road historically only 38% ATS when covering 10+ pts
Risk Factors
- Market heavily favors LAD (-144) — fighting large consensus risky. But home dog values rare; model likely correct.
- Small sample on home underdog 10-15% edge (5 games), but 64% WR promising
- Sasaki ERA (5.14) elevated; regression possible, though B- grade suggests quality pitch mix
UNDERDOG VALUERARE DOG EDGEPARK SUPPRESSIONROAD FAVORITE CURSEHOME LEAN JUSTIFIED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 51.7%
-30.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.2 pts
Total
7.5
+3.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →