LAD vs SD prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.3 - LAD 3.9. LAD is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — LAD 3.9
Actual
SD 2 — LAD 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF43%94 mph25% whiff
SL31%87 mph39% whiff
CH16%85 mph22% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI29%93 mph13% whiff
CH26%86 mph27% whiff
ST20%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
71°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.976 Total: 0.984
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.8% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-22.6% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+13.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.0% EV
+118
F5_ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-135
ML AWAY
-6.5% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.1 runs
44.2% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Ty France 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=256)
LAD away team -142 favorite projects 55.0% win prob vs market 58.8% implied, edge of -6.5% on ML. But UNDER 8.0 is exceptional: model projects 7.18 total vs market 8.0, creating +13.6% edge at 59.5% win prob. Michael King (B- grade) vs Emmet Sheehan (B grade, 5.75 ERA) match creates medium-scoring scenario, with PETCO's -12% park factor suppressing runs.
Key Factors
- King vs Sheehan: Michael King 8.0 K/9 (B-, 20.4% K rate) vs Sheehan 8.0 K/9 (B grade, 26.2% K rate) — Sheehan higher K rate but worse ERA (5.75); mixed
- PETCO Park -12% run suppression factor is REAL. Model 7.18 likely accurate.
- Wind 9.4 mph IN (-8.6 tail) reinforces under
- Temperature 71.2F neutral
- NRFI 54.2% model prob (close to 50-50) — early inning open
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled; extreme caution. UNDER has 47.6% historical WR (DISABLED). Do NOT trust this edge without external verification.
- Sheehan 5.75 ERA visiting suggests offense will score; under 8.0 might be too aggressive given LAD lineup (Ohtani, Muncy)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.6%
-37.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.8 pts
Total
8.0
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →