LAD vs STL prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.3 - LAD 3.5. STL is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
STL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LADSTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
245
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.3 — LAD 3.5
Actual
STL 3 — LAD 2
Pick Results
Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF42%97 mph11% whiff
FS36%87 mph42% whiff
SL22%86 mph35% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF26%91 mph9% whiff
CH21%86 mph28% whiff
SI14%90 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
61°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.74ERA
3.33FIP
10.32K/9
3.54BB/9
1.22WHIP
STL
5.00ERA
4.45FIP
7.80K/9
4.98BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-32.9% EV
+118
F5_ML AWAY
-29.9% EV
-128
F5_ML HOME
+22.5% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-22.5% EV
-143
ML AWAY
-22.4% EV
-135
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-22.3% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.7 runs
29.1% win
STL F5
2.7 runs
54.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
57.9%
YRFI
42.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE56.0% WR (n=136)
Model projects 59.1% home win (STL) vs 46.3% market implied (STL -135 = 57.5% implied). However, this is DATA_INTEGRITY flag: Roki Sasaki (6.86 ERA, C+ grade) vs Michael McGreevy (3.21 ERA, C+ grade despite lower stuff). 19.7% edge on STL ML is YELLOW zone (56% WR combo|home) but market prices LAD -135 (57.5%). Model disagrees with market heavily. Sharp money on STL (-222 away odds) — recalibrate. LAD should be favored but market shows it. SKIP home ML; instead check F5_ML STL which shows +22.5% edge.
Key Factors
- McGreevy 3.21 ERA vs Sasaki 6.86 ERA — 3.65 ERA delta, backed by elite 68.1% command vs poor 30.6% command. Clear pitcher advantage STL.
- Model 55.4% STL home vs market 42.5% LAD (57.5% LAD) = 12.9 point prob gap — significant but not extreme (calibration max 12% edge cap)
- Cold St. Louis (60.8F, 10.5mph in = 0.987 mult) suppresses runs; STL bullpen elite (5.0 ERA, 0.9 quality — wait that's poor, 0.9 < 1.0)
- F5_ML shows +22.5% edge on STL (model 60.6%, market ~37%) — better isolated entry point than full game ML
Risk Factors
- Edge of 19.7% home ML exceeds calibration cap (12%) — model likely overconfident on home underdog with pitcher advantage
- LAD strong lineup could overcome Sasaki's weakness if they sit offspeed early
- STL bullpen quality suspect (0.9 multiplier) — late-game control could regress
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 59.1%
-22.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-22.5 pts
Total
8.5
+14.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →