FINAL: STL 1 — LAD 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.9 - LAD 4.1 (LAD at 62.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
STL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAD
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LADSTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.9 — LAD 4.1
Actual
STL 1 — LAD 4
Pick Results
LAD F5 MLf5_mlWIN+1.22u
Jordan Walker OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF51%94 mph14% whiff
SL35%86 mph21% whiff
CU7%77 mph6% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph12% whiff
SI20%96 mph13% whiff
ST19%86 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
68°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.967 Total: 0.979
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.66ERA
3.33FIP
10.20K/9
3.56BB/9
1.21WHIP
STL
5.02ERA
4.36FIP
7.97K/9
4.93BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.9% EV
-125
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-43.4% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+34.4% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+33.7% EV
+122
F5 UNDER 5.5
+29.6% EV
-125
F5_ML HOME
-22.9% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.2 runs
51.0% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
28.2% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
66.3%
YRFI
33.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.576 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 17.2% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE51.0% WR (n=221)
UNDER 9.5 at 70.4% model WR, 34.4% edge—ELITE PLAY. Justin Wrobleski (1.62 ERA, rookie sensation) vs Dustin May (5.7 ERA, poor). Model sees Wrobleski as game-changer. LAD F5 ML also strong at 61.4% (11.2% edge). Cold weather (68.4°F, 11mph wind in) + park factor (1.0) = additional unders support. ESPN confirms LAD F5 win.
Key Factors
- Justin Wrobleski (LAD away SP) 1.62 ERA, 15.3% K, D stuff grade—ANOMALY. Likely hot rookie. K/BB: 15.3/6.9 = 2.2 ratio (elite control)
- Dustin May (STL) 5.7 ERA, 16.5% K, C+ stuff—poor SP, weak command (0.713 score but 5% BB)
- Model sees Wrobleski as game-changer: LAD away SP usually disadvantaged, but 1.62 ERA overrides this
- Wind 11mph BLOWING IN (10.7 mph direct) = -2.1% run suppression (0.979x mult). LAD F5 edge 11.2% confirms early-game suppression.
Risk Factors
- Wrobleski 1.62 ERA is EXTREME outlier. Unsustainable? Rookie variance? Market respects with LAD -144 but 9.5 total suggests market still expects offense.
- 34.4% edge is MASSIVE red flag historically (33.3% WR for 15%+ edges). BUT ESPN's LAD F5 ML WIN validates early suppression.
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHDIRECTION CONFIRMEDWEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 62.4%
-47.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.9 pts
Total
9.5
+34.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →