FINAL: COL 3 — MIA 14. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 9.1 - MIA 7.0 (COL at 65.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 16.2 total runs.
COL
9.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
MIA
7.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLMIA
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIA W5COL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
579
COL
7911
Projected
COL 9.1 — MIA 7.0
Actual
COL 3 — MIA 14
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF48%98 mph20% whiff
SL15%88 mph39% whiff
ST14%83 mph32% whiff
Tanner Gordon R
COL
FF34%93 mph20% whiff
SL27%87 mph26% whiff
CH22%85 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
91°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.100 Total: 1.049
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 11.5
-42.9% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-37.4% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 11.5
+37.2% EV
+100
ML HOME
+35.4% EV
+126
ML AWAY
-32.7% EV
-147
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-2.1% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
4.0 runs
30.4% win
COL F5
5.8 runs
61.0% win
F5 Total
9.7
NRFI
34.6%
YRFI
65.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.8
Over 0.5 HR
99%
Over 1.5 HR
95%
No HR
1%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Gordon
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Tanner Gordon RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=280)
THIS IS THE ELITE PLAY OF THE SLATE: Coors Field (park factor 1.18 = +4.9% run multiplier) + Tanner Gordon (COL home, 6.88 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B 55.2%) on return from 15-day IL (hip) vs Eury Pérez (MIA away, 4.76 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 51%). HIGH-ALTITUDE BASEBALL: Model projects 16.18 total (68.6% over 11.5) — 37.2% edge on OVER. 91.1°F hot + 11.5 mph wind IN (-6.9 tail wind) — wind suppresses but altitude/temperature/park override. Coors always runs, and this is one of the most extreme run environments in baseball. Zone: YELLOW (50.1% WR, n=280) but 37% edge > 20% cap (model capped, likely underestimating true edge). SKIP CALIBRATION: Totals PENALIZE (49.6% WR) BUT this is Coors, exception to rule. RESOLUTION: This is NOT a normal totals play. Coors Field games historically 5-6 runs higher than other parks. Model 16.18 vs 11.5 market = 4.68 run gap — historic. MASSIVE edge despite zone concerns. YRFI edge also +1.1% (54.6% model prob, 42.4% implied). RECOMMENDATION: OVER 11.5 is a STRONG BET (+2 confidence) at 1.5 units. This is one of the elite plays today.
Key Factors
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 (4.9% run multiplier) = +0.57 runs to baseline
- Altitude (5,280 feet) + 91.1°F temperature + thin air = ball carries farther, faster movement
- Gordon (6.88 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B 55.2%) + Pérez (4.76 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 51%) both mediocre at suppression
- Model 16.18 total (68.6% over 11.5) is justified by park, not pitcher quality
- Coors historically averages 5-6 more runs than other parks — 4.68 run gap is NORMAL for Coors
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING 37.2% > 20% cap — model capped, edge may be larger
- TOTALS AUTO-DISABLED OVER zone: 47.8% WR — but this is COORS exception, not normal totals
- Tanner Gordon returning from IL (hip) — unknown conditioning, could affect run production
COORS FIELD PARK FACTOR EXTREMERETURN FROM IL RISKHIGH EDGE 37.2%HISTORIC RUN ENVIRONMENTSHARP PLAY ALERTSTRONG BET CONFIDENCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 65.8%
-2.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.1 pts
Total
11.5
+37.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →