MIA vs COL prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 9.1 - MIA 8.5. COL is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 17.6 total runs.
COL
9.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
MIA
8.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLMIA
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
7810
COL
7911
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF48%98 mph20% whiff
SL15%88 mph39% whiff
ST14%83 mph32% whiff
Tanner Gordon R
COL
FF34%93 mph20% whiff
SL27%87 mph26% whiff
CH22%85 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
91°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.148 Total: 1.074
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-55.3% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+41.0% EV
-123
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.9% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-21.4% EV
-154
ML HOME
+20.5% EV
+130
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-15.2% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
4.9 runs
39.3% win
COL F5
5.7 runs
51.7% win
F5 Total
10.5
NRFI
31.3%
YRFI
68.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
2.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
5.1
Over 0.5 HR
99%
Over 1.5 HR
96%
No HR
1%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Stowers MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Gordon
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Tanner Gordon RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 56.0%
-15.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-15.2 pts
Total
10.5
+41.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →