MIA vs LAD prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.3 - MIA 3.2. LAD is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
LAD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADMIA
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
LAD
135
Projected
LAD 3.3 — MIA 3.2
Actual
LAD 2 — MIA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
SI23%97 mph10% whiff
FF23%97 mph16% whiff
CH22%91 mph39% whiff
Tyler Glasnow R
LAD
FF33%95 mph13% whiff
KC23%80 mph53% whiff
SI20%96 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.12ERA
3.82FIP
10.42K/9
5.35BB/9
1.32WHIP
LAD
3.71ERA
3.40FIP
10.34K/9
3.59BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-38.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.4% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+29.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.2% EV
-111
ML AWAY
+27.8% EV
+194
F5 UNDER 4.5
+20.0% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.6 runs
37.4% win
LAD F5
1.7 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.5%
YRFI
33.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
20%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Glasnow
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA6 injured
Liam Hicks CDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
LAD8 injured
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 52.7%
-28.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.2 pts
Total
8.5
+29.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →