MIA vs MIN prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.4 - MIA 4.5. MIN is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINMIA
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
346
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.4 — MIA 4.5
Actual
MIN 3 — MIA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF52%98 mph20% whiff
SL16%87 mph38% whiff
ST14%84 mph33% whiff
Bailey Ober R
MIN
CH35%83 mph21% whiff
FF31%89 mph18% whiff
SL16%82 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
67°F20 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.998
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.60ERA
3.52FIP
9.64K/9
4.63BB/9
1.19WHIP
MIN
5.50ERA
4.68FIP
7.29K/9
4.55BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.7% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-20.3% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-6.6% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-4.1% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.5 runs
40.9% win
MIN F5
2.6 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
9%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.391 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.99x
Brooks Lee MIN26.5%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA6 injured
Owen Caissie RFDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
MIN8 injured
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 51.4%
-35.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.7 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →