MIA vs MIN prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.8 - MIA 4.2. MIA is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
MIN
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINMIA
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 3.8 — MIA 4.2
Actual
MIN 5 — MIA 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
SL27%90 mph41% whiff
ST26%88 mph34% whiff
FF22%95 mph13% whiff
Simeon Woods Richardson R
MIN
FF42%92 mph18% whiff
FS27%87 mph16% whiff
SL26%86 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
71°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.027
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.55ERA
3.55FIP
9.64K/9
4.75BB/9
1.20WHIP
MIN
5.50ERA
4.68FIP
7.29K/9
4.55BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.8% EV
-156
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.9% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+12.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.3% EV
+130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.7% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.2 runs
44.1% win
MIN F5
2.0 runs
38.0% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Xavier Edwards MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.139 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Simeon Woods Richardson | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.381 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Simeon Woods Richardson
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA6 injured
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
MIN8 injured
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=252)
Max Meyer (3.01 ERA, B grade, 25.6% K) overwhelms Simeon Woods Richardson (7.47 ERA, C grade, 10.8% K, D stuff score 0.02); model projects 7.9 total vs 8.5 market for +12.4% UNDER edge. F5 UNDER +10.7%, NRFI +3.1% support the under despite small sample zone (YELLOW).
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Meyer 3.01 ERA (B grade, 25.6% K) vs SWR 7.47 ERA (C grade, 0.02 stuff = D level)
- UNDER edge: +12.4% (model 56.8% vs market 43.2% for under); 0.6 run gap is meaningful
- F5 UNDER: +10.7% edge (55.9% model prob); early inning pitcher dominance strong
- Weather: 70°F neutral, 4 mph out (minimal), park factor 1.0 (neutral); no weather tilt
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.4% WR) — totals betting historically unreliable
- SWR is so bad (7.47 ERA, 0.02 stuff) that could be in freefall; edge might be overcorrected
- MIN hitters could feast on SWR, creating overs despite pitcher dominance
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUEUNDER EDGEF5 EDGEMODEST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 52.9%
-38.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.8 pts
Total
8.5
+12.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →