MIA vs MIN prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.6 - MIA 3.7. MIA is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
MIN
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINMIA
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,063 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 3.6 — MIA 3.7
Actual
MIN 9 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Garrett L
MIA
SI33%90 mph12% whiff
SL26%83 mph27% whiff
FF14%91 mph19% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF41%96 mph20% whiff
SL25%88 mph36% whiff
FC13%92 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
71°F15 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.001
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.52ERA
3.59FIP
9.63K/9
4.69BB/9
1.19WHIP
MIN
5.35ERA
4.57FIP
7.38K/9
4.46BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.6% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.5% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+18.5% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.0% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.9% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
-7.1% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.9 runs
41.3% win
MIN F5
1.9 runs
39.6% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Jeffers MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Braxton Garrett | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Kreidler MIN28.9%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Braxton Garrett | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Garrett
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA5 injured
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Taj Bradley SP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=250)
Both starters TBD/season debut (Matthews season debut, Garrett return from injury) — model correctly projects even game (49.9% vs 50.1%) and has no ML edge. UNDER edge 18.5% but in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR). Game resolved MIN 9-1 (UNDER 8.5 hit, Matthews dominant 7 IP 0 R).
Key Factors
- TBD pitchers on both sides: Matthews season debut (ERA N/A, k-rate 24.9%), Garrett return (ERA N/A, K-rate 21.1%). No baseline data for model confidence.
- Model correctly projected even ML matchup (49.9% vs 50.1%) — acknowledges uncertainty.
- UNDER edge 18.5% strong but YELLOW zone (50.4% WR, 250 samples) doesn't support high confidence.
- Actual result: Matthews 7 IP, 0 R in debut — elite performance; Garrett also solid (5 IP, 1 R). Both pitchers overperformed projections.
- Total actual 10 < market 8.5 — model 7.32 projection proved too conservative but still beat market.
Risk Factors
- TBD starter performances carry inherent risk — debut outcomes highly variable, regression expected.
- Model's 7.32 total projection was conservative; if Garrett hadn't performed well, total could have spiked to 9+.
- Target Field thin air (density 1037) and neutral wind should have added ~0.5 runs but weather suppressors (5 mph in) offset.
RESOLVED GAMETBD PITCHERYELLOW ZONE UNDERNEUTRAL ML
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.1%
-38.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.6 pts
Total
8.5
+18.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →