MIA vs NYM prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.4 - MIA 3.5. NYM is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
NYM
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
245
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.4 — MIA 3.5
Actual
NYM 6 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI27%96 mph2% whiff
FS25%88 mph40% whiff
ST24%85 mph40% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF53%96 mph20% whiff
FC20%89 mph12% whiff
ST20%81 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
58°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.936 Total: 0.962
13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.6% EV
-213
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-22.6% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.0% EV
+176
F5_ML HOME
-9.1% EV
-128
ML HOME
-8.9% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 3.5
+4.6% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.8 runs
39.8% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
40.4% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
62.5%
YRFI
37.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Juan Soto NYM24.3%
ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA14.9%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA10.1%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Andrew Nardi RP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE43.4% WR (n=173)
Scott (10.8 K/9) creates pitcher mismatch to NYM home, and cold weather supports low runs. Market is efficient (6.93 model vs 7.0 market total). MIA as away dog is in RED zone historically (43.4% WR). No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Christian Scott (NYM, B-, 10.8 K/9) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA, B-, 8.4 K/9). SCOTT HAS SUPERIOR K RATE (+2.4 K/9) and is home pitcher. This is PITCHER_MISMATCH to NYM home.
- Cold weather (57.9°F, 13mph wind IN) suppresses runs. Model 6.93 vs market 7.0 — nearly exact match. Under edge -4.0% (negligible).
- NYM lineup strong (Soto, Lindor). MIA lineup decent (Liam Hicks, Owen Caissie). NYM has quality edge.
- Both teams mediocre: NYM 31-30 (3rd NL East), MIA 29-32 (4th NL East). Neither is elite.
- NRFI edge 62.5% (but NRFI is disabled, grade F).
Risk Factors
- MIA as away dog is in RED zone (43.4% WR, -$23.99 units). This is a HARD BLOCK on any away underdog play.
- Model shows near coin-flip ML (48.5% MIA vs 51.5% NYM). No actionable direction.
- Cold weather slightly favors Scott (NYM pitcher), further supporting NYM edge. But MIA away dog can't overcome RED zone bias.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 50.7%
-10.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.0 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →