MIA vs NYY prediction for April 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.7 - MIA 5.2. NYY is favored with a 63.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
NYY
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYMIA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIA L4NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
NYY
579
Pick Results
Eury Pérez OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF51%98 mph18% whiff
SL21%86 mph40% whiff
CU9%80 mph19% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
FF41%93 mph21% whiff
SI21%93 mph12% whiff
ST20%83 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
53°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.967 Total: 0.981
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.13ERA
3.55FIP
9.62K/9
3.02BB/9
1.17WHIP
NYY
3.72ERA
3.46FIP
10.20K/9
3.41BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.1% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-42.0% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+37.8% EV
-102
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.7% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
-9.6% EV
+126
ML AWAY
-5.8% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.9 runs
33.3% win
NYY F5
3.9 runs
53.0% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Aaron Judge NYY23.4%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.10x
Ben Rice NYY22.8%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Giancarlo Stanton NYY21.9%
ISO: 0.337 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Griffin Conine LFDAY-TO-DAY
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Maximo Acosta SS10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2GREEN ZONE58.9% WR (n=113)
Model shows 37.8% edge OVER 8.0 (69.6% vs 31.7% market implied) in 52.7F cold weather — this is a classic high-edge calibration failure. Market likely correct; model overconfident on totals despite weather data contradicting the projection.
Key Factors
- Model total 11.94 vs market 8.0 = 3.94 run delta. This is extreme.
- Weather: 52.7F, 88% humidity, 5mph wind IN (0.981x multiplier) — SUPPRESSES scoring, contradicting OVER thesis.
- Will Warren (NYY) 2.25 ERA is solid. Eury Pérez (MIA) 4.17 ERA average. Pitching suggests lower scoring.
- 37.8% edge is in HISTORICAL HIGH-EDGE FAILURE ZONE: 15%+ edges actually win 36-50%, not 60%+.
Risk Factors
- Model edge 37.8% is RED FLAG for overconfidence. Weather multiplier (0.981x) contradicts 69.6% OVER probability.
- Market has priced total at 8.0 despite model seeing 11.94. Professional oddsmakers are likely correct.
- Home favorites (NYY) in cold weather historically suppress scoring. Model may be using average run projections without weather adjustment.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTWEATHER IMPACTCALIBRATION FAILURE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 63.1%
+4.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.6 pts
Total
8.0
+37.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →