FINAL: NYY 9 — MIA 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.3 - MIA 3.8 (NYY at 65.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYMIA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIA L4NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — MIA 3.8
Actual
NYY 9 — MIA 7
Pick Results
OVER 7.5totalWIN+0.95u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
SL34%90 mph40% whiff
FF22%95 mph12% whiff
CH18%89 mph22% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF44%97 mph16% whiff
CH26%87 mph40% whiff
ST20%84 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
51°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.029
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.22ERA
3.70FIP
9.51K/9
3.12BB/9
1.18WHIP
NYY
3.80ERA
3.52FIP
10.25K/9
3.36BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.5% EV
-133
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-20.6% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+15.8% EV
+102
F5 OVER 3.5
+7.3% EV
-152
ML AWAY
-6.7% EV
+164
F5_ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
+156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
30.9% win
NYY F5
3.2 runs
55.0% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Aaron Judge NYY50.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 23.1% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 1.10x
Ben Rice NYY50.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 21.4% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Giancarlo Stanton NYY44.6%
ISO: 0.337 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Maximo Acosta SS10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE58.9% WR (n=113)
Model 57.3% OVER 7.5 (15.8% edge), but market is heavily on UNDER (-20.6% edge for under). NYY lineup elite (Judge, Stanton, Rice all 50%+ HR prob) but weather cold (50.8F) and park factor 1.1 (slight help). MIA weak starter Max Meyer (5.83 ERA) helps OVER case. But 15.8% edge suggests model overconfidence; data conflict on direction.
Key Factors
- OVER edge: 15.8% (model 57.3% vs market 50%) is large; RED FLAG per calibration (high edge = worst WR)
- NYY elite power: Judge, Rice, Stanton 50%+ HR probs suggest high ceiling on runs
- MIA weakness: Meyer (5.83 ERA) is soft-touch SP; with IF injuries, likely run-scoring opportunity
- Weather: 50.8F cold + 12.7mph tailwind slightly helps HRs (1.047 HR multiplier) but overall runs suppressed by cold
- Yankee Stadium factor: 1.1 park factor = +10% runs baseline, but 50F negates ~3-4% of that
Risk Factors
- 15.8% edge is HUGE and historically underperforms (0% WR for 70%+ prob; 36.4% WR for 15-25% edges per performance data)
- Market actively betting AGAINST OVER (-20.6% edge) suggests sharp money sees vulnerability
- MIA injuries reduce variance; strikeouts may dominate rather than runs
WEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 65.5%
+4.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.0 pts
Total
7.5
+15.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →