MIA vs PHI prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.4 - MIA 4.4. PHI is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIMIA
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,358 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.4 — MIA 4.4
Actual
PHI 7 — MIA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
FF43%94 mph26% whiff
CU14%80 mph14% whiff
FC11%89 mph20% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF39%95 mph22% whiff
SI17%95 mph4% whiff
ST14%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
74°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.84ERA
3.57FIP
10.02K/9
4.52BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.25ERA
3.26FIP
10.28K/9
3.22BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.5% EV
-133
ML AWAY
+20.1% EV
+160
ML HOME
-17.7% EV
-189
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.2% EV
+112
F5_ML HOME
-15.4% EV
-213
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-14.7% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.2 runs
38.7% win
PHI F5
2.6 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
51.8%
YRFI
48.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.327 | Barrel: 18.5% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.306 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Gusto
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE43.5% WR (n=100)
Model projects MIA 46.2% despite massive pitcher disadvantage (Gusto 6.48 ERA vs Wheeler 2.40 ERA, 4.08 gap) — extreme overconfidence causing false 20.1% edge on away underdog in RED zone (43.5% WR).
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Wheeler 2.40 ERA vs Gusto 6.48 ERA (4.08 gap, ~15-20% win prob swing favors PHI)
- Zone failure: MIA away underdog with 20.1% edge falls in RED zone (MLB|ml|away|any|any|any, 43.5% WR, n=100)
- Market alignment: PHI -188 reflects true pitcher quality; model's 46.2% for MIA is underestimate of Wheeler's dominance
- No weather edge: 74.4°F neutral conditions, 7mph wind in (park factor 1.02), no injury impact
Risk Factors
- High edge on away underdog: 20.1% edge in historically catastrophic zone, per 30-day performance data
- Model-market conflict: Model disagrees sharply with market despite clear pitcher hierarchy
- Road underdog trap: MIA on road without dominant arm makes value questionable
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 51.5%
-17.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.2 pts
Total
8.0
+6.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →