MIA vs PIT prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.5 - MIA 4.5. PIT is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
PIT
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIA
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
346
PIT
467
Projected
PIT 5.5 — MIA 4.5
Actual
PIT 3 — MIA 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
SI24%97 mph7% whiff
CH22%91 mph28% whiff
FF20%97 mph15% whiff
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph15% whiff
CU24%85 mph40% whiff
SL24%92 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
84°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.993
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.73ERA
3.62FIP
10.13K/9
4.39BB/9
1.16WHIP
PIT
4.37ERA
4.22FIP
9.40K/9
4.63BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.3% EV
-169
F5_ML AWAY
-10.2% EV
+124
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-8.5% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
+122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+6.9% EV
+140
F5 OVER 4.5
+1.9% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.2 runs
34.1% win
PIT F5
3.0 runs
52.2% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.324 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Callihan PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA24.6%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Henry Davis CPATERNITY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=98)
Market is efficiently priced; model shows mild home edge (58.7% vs -1.3% ML edge) but negative edges across all sides suggest model-market alignment or data noise. Home ML in GREEN zone but edge is negative; totals flat at YELLOW zone baseline.
Key Factors
- Braxton Ashcraft: 3.54 ERA, 26.7% K-rate, B-grade (0.654) vs Sandy Alcantara: 4.68 ERA, 17.3% K-rate, B- (0.464) — modest pitcher mismatch favoring home
- Home ML in GREEN zone (56.6% WR, 98 samples) but edge is negative (-1.3%)
- Total model 10.07 vs market 8.5 (1.57 run edge) suggests runs underpriced, but OVER market has been catastrophically weak (recently disabled)
Risk Factors
- UNDER market auto-disabled 6/12 for grade F performance — avoid betting against runs today
- Negative ML edge despite GREEN home zone suggests market has superior information or model underestimating MIA
NEUTRAL MARKETMODEST PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONE NEGATIVE EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 58.7%
+6.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →