MIA vs PIT prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.6 - MIA 4.3. PIT is favored with a 67.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
PIT
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIA
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.2% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
PIT
579
Projected
PIT 6.6 — MIA 4.3
Actual
PIT 2 — MIA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
ST28%89 mph35% whiff
SL26%90 mph39% whiff
FF24%95 mph12% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF37%97 mph26% whiff
CH16%89 mph34% whiff
ST15%84 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
82°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.83ERA
3.53FIP
10.04K/9
4.58BB/9
1.22WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.26FIP
9.43K/9
4.72BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-51.8% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-36.6% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+30.4% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+29.9% EV
+146
F5 OVER 3.5
+28.8% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-26.4% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.0 runs
24.8% win
PIT F5
4.0 runs
64.1% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
49.0%
YRFI
51.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.329 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Callihan PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA20.6%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 67.0%
+29.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+29.9 pts
Total
7.5
+30.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →