MIA vs STL prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 5.2 - MIA 5.0. STL is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
STL
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIA
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
STL
357
Projected
STL 5.2 — MIA 5.0
Actual
STL 0 — MIA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
ST29%89 mph33% whiff
SL26%90 mph39% whiff
FF24%95 mph11% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH21%87 mph27% whiff
SI17%90 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
74°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.9% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-28.0% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
-123
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.2% EV
+158
ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+7.2% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.7 runs
42.3% win
STL F5
2.8 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Griffin Conine MIA28.9%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA25.4%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Esteury Ruiz MIA24.2%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE62.6% WR (n=9)
Pitcher advantage: Meyer (10.1 K/9, B) >> McGreevy (5.9 K/9, C+). Model favors HOME (52.7%) despite away SP quality. HOME ML edge 0.6% is essentially fair (market -107/-107 correct). OVER 8.0 edge 7.2% is mild (totals disabled). No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- AWAY SP QUALITY: Meyer (10.1 K/9, B, 26.8% K) >> McGreevy (5.9 K/9, C+, 16.6% K) — 4.2 K/9 gap favors away
- Home field overcomes: Model favors STL 52.7% despite away SP advantage — home field (3-4% effect) + lineup quality offset
- Market pricing fair: STL -107 (51.8% implied) vs model 52.7% = near-perfect alignment
- OVER 8.0 edge 7.2% at 57.9% — below 8% threshold, totals disabled anyway
- Park/weather: Busch Stadium 1.0 neutral, 74°F humid, 2.4 mph wind (neutral)
Risk Factors
- Meyer quality could be underestimated; elite away arms sometimes overcome home field
- Small sample on 0-5% edge bucket
AWAY SP ADVANTAGEHOME FIELD FAIRMARKET CORRECTBELOW THRESHOLD
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 52.7%
-32.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.9 pts
Total
8.0
+7.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →