MIA vs STL prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.9 - MIA 3.8. STL is favored with a 62.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
STL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIA
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.9 — MIA 3.8
Actual
STL 1 — MIA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
FF27%94 mph24% whiff
CH20%87 mph28% whiff
SI14%93 mph12% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph11% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI19%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
78°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.4% EV
-175
F5_ML AWAY
-17.1% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-15.3% EV
+120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+11.3% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-8.3% EV
-120
ML HOME
+4.5% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.0 runs
30.9% win
STL F5
3.0 runs
55.7% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.98x
JJ Wetherholt STL28.5%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Gusto
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE55.6% WR (n=131)
STL home 62.7% (model) vs 58.8% market (-142 odds) = 4.5% home edge (modest). Andre Pallante (STL home, RHP, C+ 0.459 overall, 18.5% K) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA away, RHP, B- 0.468 overall, 19.0% K). Pitcher quality near-parity (both C+/B-, K-rates 18.5% vs 19.0% — away slight K advantage). Home field + bullpen (STL 4.3 ERA vs MIA 3.85 ERA) favors home slightly. Model leans home at +4.5% — reasonable given field + bullpen parity edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality (away slight edge): Gusto 19.0% K vs Pallante 18.5% K — marginal, away 0.5% K advantage
- Grade near-parity: Gusto B- (0.468) vs Pallante C+ (0.459) — away 0.009 points ahead
- Bullpen edge (away): MIA 3.85 ERA > STL 4.3 ERA — away bullpen 0.45 ERA better, contradicts home lean
- Home field: Busch Stadium thin air (+1.007 multiplier), minimal advantage
- Model contradiction: Leans home despite away pitcher K + bullpen edge
Risk Factors
- Bullpen edge away: MIA bullpen (3.85 ERA) better than STL (4.3 ERA), contradicts home lean
- Model vs pitcher quality: Away has K-rate advantage, model ignores
- YELLOW zone: 55.6% WR (n=131), combo 59% — decent but not elite
PITCHER MISMATCHYELLOW ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 62.7%
+11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.3 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →