MIA vs STL prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.4 - MIA 4.2. STL is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
STL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIA
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.4 — MIA 4.2
Actual
STL 2 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI26%96 mph4% whiff
FS24%88 mph33% whiff
ST24%84 mph34% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF29%94 mph14% whiff
CU16%83 mph27% whiff
SL16%89 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-17.0% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-9.7% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+8.4% EV
-105
ML HOME
-3.9% EV
-127
ML AWAY
-3.7% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.4 runs
43.3% win
STL F5
2.4 runs
43.0% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.1%
YRFI
45.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Kyle Stowers MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA24.1%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=256)
STL home at -126 projects 53.7% win prob vs market 55.9% implied, creating only -3.9% edge on home ML. But UNDER 9.0 shows +8.4% edge at 55.6% model prob — Tyler Phillips (STL away pitcher) is underrated 3.34 ERA (B- grade), and Kyle Leahy (STL home) 4.58 ERA creates pitching mismatch that depresses run scoring. UNDER is the play.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage STL: Tyler Phillips (MIA away) 3.34 ERA (B- grade) is significantly better than Leahy 4.58 ERA (C+ grade) — but Phillips pitching away
- NRFI edge: Model 51.5% at 3.1% edge — scoring suppressed early
- Weather: 89.9F hot, but only -2.2 tail wind (blowing in) = run suppression, supports under
- Bullpen STL 4.30 ERA vs MIA 3.85 ERA — slight edge MIA
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled; caution warranted. UNDER bets have 47.6% WR historically (DISABLED), suggesting model struggle with under market
- Temperature 89.9F usually inflates scoring, but wind blowing in counteracts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 53.6%
+0.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.4 pts
Total
9.0
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →